FMNB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMNB - Farmers National Banc Corp
$16.06
0.34 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+0.44%
30d:
+11.53%
90d:
+14.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMNB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMNB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.11
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $16.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.44 to $15.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.44 -
$15.82
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.3% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.44 -
$15.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.55
Resistance Level
$16.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 7.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.91
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$17.81
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$18.75
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.0%)
$41.18
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$18.57
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 5.0%)
$15.79
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$20.56
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$18.69
(+16%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$10.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 9:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMNB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gina A Richardson
BUY
441 shares
2026-03-19
Gina A Richardson
BUY
1231 shares
2026-03-05
Edward Muransky
BUY
40000 shares
2026-03-03
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