FMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$22.61
-0.09 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-4.6%
30d:
+4.82%
90d:
+1.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.41
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
19.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $22.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.50 to $23.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.42 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.42 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.50 -
$23.43
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.50 -
$23.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.55
Resistance Level
$22.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.69
Wall Street Target
$25.42
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.41
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$22.20
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$22.01
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$22.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.3%)
$170.45
(+654%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 32.3%)
$52.36
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 32.3%)
$44.50
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$46.45
(+105%)
Analyst growth 81.7%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$42.23
(+87%)
Market implied 81.7%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$15.80
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$23.32
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 01, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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