Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$126.80
2.02 (1.62%)
â˛
5d:
+1.01%
30d:
-2.72%
90d:
-9.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.33
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.46
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $126.80, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.53 to $133.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (17.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $121.89, while resistance sits at $131.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.44 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $121.89, while resistance sits at $131.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.44 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$126.53 -
$133.74
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($155.44)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.53 -
$133.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.89
Resistance Level
$131.31
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.64
Wall Street Target
$155.44
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 17.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.67
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$109.09
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$102.00
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â18)
$124.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$224.78
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$165.66
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$140.81
(+13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.96
Bull Case
$203.81
(+63%)
Analyst growth 43.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$185.28
(+49%)
Market implied 43.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$88.08
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 17.9
Stabilization Target:
$152.60
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 15, 2026 11:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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