HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$128.68
-3.53 (-2.67%)
▼
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
-10.2%
90d:
-14.74%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.67
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.64
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $128.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.35 to $141.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.47, while resistance sits at $133.36.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.47, while resistance sits at $133.36.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$129.35 -
$141.92
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($153.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.35 -
$141.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.47
Resistance Level
$133.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.09
Wall Street Target
$153.50
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 18.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.06
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$112.01
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$104.51
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$128.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$228.97
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$170.84
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$145.22
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.37
Bull Case
$194.64
(+51%)
Analyst growth 33.8%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$176.94
(+38%)
Market implied 33.8%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$89.90
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$158.57
(+23.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 11:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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