HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$145.26
2.10 (1.47%)
▲
5d:
+6.84%
30d:
-4.48%
90d:
+4.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.20
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $145.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.05 to $149.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (19.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.13, while resistance sits at $151.23.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.50 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.13, while resistance sits at $151.23.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.50 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$139.05 -
$149.98
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($172.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.05 -
$149.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.13
Resistance Level
$151.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.79
Wall Street Target
$172.50
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 19.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.43
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$130.02
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$123.91
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$143.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$246.52
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$190.07
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$161.56
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.22
Bull Case
$210.82
(+47%)
Analyst growth 37.1%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$191.65
(+34%)
Market implied 37.1%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$95.08
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 19.4
Stabilization Target:
$165.39
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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