Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRMY - Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$37.95
-0.32 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-5.78%
30d:
-11.21%
90d:
+13.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $38.54 · last confirmed Oct 14, 2026
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HRMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.97
24.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRMY is currently trading at $37.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.25 to $42.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.4) is in line with its historical norms (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 88.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.99, while resistance sits at $40.77.
Market Sentiment: HRMY scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.25 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.99, while resistance sits at $40.77.
Market Sentiment: HRMY scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.25 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.25 -
$42.03
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HRMY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($48.25)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.25 -
$42.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.99
Resistance Level
$40.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.42
Wall Street Target
$48.25
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.2%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 5.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.89
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.85
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$34.85
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$37.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 34.1%)
$335.78
(+785%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 34.1%)
$91.60
(+141%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 34.1%)
$77.86
(+105%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$84.19
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$76.54
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$26.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$41.33
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 16, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HRMY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRMY price and gamma walls.
