HUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$386.06
13.24 (3.55%)
▲
5d:
+6.11%
30d:
-5.09%
90d:
+30.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $385.00 · last confirmed Aug 12, 2026
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HUM trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HUM trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$593.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$368.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $386.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $372.49 to $400.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $393.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.43 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $393.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.43 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$372.49 -
$400.86
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HUM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($416.43)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.9% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$372.49 -
$400.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$353.69
Resistance Level
$393.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.50
Wall Street Target
$416.43
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 18.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$398.54
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$426.04
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$455.44
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$372.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 81.0%)
$1258.27
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 81.0%)
$1131.21
(+203%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 81.0%)
$961.53
(+158%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.61
Bull Case
$662.52
(+78%)
Analyst growth 56.2%, PE expands to 40.0
Base Case
$602.29
(+62%)
Market implied 56.2%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$262.28
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 3:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Sanjay K Shetty
BUY
810 shares
2026-02-23
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Advanced HUM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HUM price and gamma walls.
