Humana (HUM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$431.87
44.75 (11.56%)
▲
5d:
+11.2%
30d:
+7.77%
90d:
+6.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $404.07 · last confirmed Oct 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HUM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HUM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$629.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$391.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $431.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $380.90 to $406.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $375.86, while resistance sits at $456.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HUM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $375.86, while resistance sits at $456.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HUM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$380.90 -
$406.23
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HUM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($423.74)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.1% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$380.90 -
$406.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$375.86
Resistance Level
$456.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.90
Wall Street Target
$423.74
(-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.1% premium
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 19.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$475.49
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$523.51
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$576.39
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$431.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 82.1%)
$1457.56
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 82.1%)
$1117.56
(+159%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 82.1%)
$949.92
(+120%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.58
Bull Case
$671.07
(+55%)
Analyst growth 57.6%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$610.07
(+41%)
Market implied 57.6%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$263.24
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HUM price and gamma walls.
