JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$141.28
-6.93 (-4.68%)
▼
5d:
-3.27%
30d:
+4.29%
90d:
+6.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$236.36
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.76
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $141.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.10 to $145.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.32, while resistance sits at $148.70. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: JCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.32, while resistance sits at $148.70. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: JCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$137.10 -
$145.91
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($154.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.10 -
$145.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.32
Resistance Level
$148.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.55
Wall Street Target
$154.90
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.9%
Profit Margin
14.4%
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 24.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.28
(0%)
2-Year Target
$141.28
(0%)
3-Year Target
$141.28
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
$141.59
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$230.81
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$204.80
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$174.08
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.27
Bull Case
$280.39
(+89%)
Analyst growth 76.0%, PE expands to 48.7
Base Case
$254.90
(+72%)
Market implied 76.0%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$98.48
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Daniel C Mcconeghy
SELL
3600 shares
2026-02-23
Todd M Grabowski
SELL
6050 shares
2026-02-06
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
