Is LITE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, LITE is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of LITE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LITE to be between $843.18 and $942.10. The current price is $919.40.

What is the analyst price target for LITE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LITE is $1149.38. This implies a potential upside of 25.0% from current levels.

Lumentum (LITE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC

$919.40

80.44 (9.59%) ▲

5d: -7.04%

30d: -5.11%

90d: +5.03%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your LITE Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 11, 2026 at $926.55 · last confirmed Sep 14, 2026

Strength: 6.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1621.23

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1006.66

8.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $919.40, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $843.18 to $942.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.6) compared to its historical average (50.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $818.89, while resistance sits at $1026.76. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: LITE scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1149.38 (+25.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $843.18 - $942.10

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.6%)
BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($1149.38)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.0%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $843.18 - $942.10

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $818.89

Resistance Level $1026.76

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.61

Wall Street Target $1149.38 (+25.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 109.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 71.1%

Profit Margin -230.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -18.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 27.6 vs 50.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -18.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $827.46 (-10%)

2-Year Target $744.71 (-19%)

3-Year Target $670.24 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→50) $1213.83 (+32%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.6, Growth: 53.9%) $3102.98 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 53.9%) $2269.19 (+147%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 53.9%) $1928.81 (+110%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.6 to 50.0

Stabilization Target: $1665.06 (+81.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +81.1%

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Last updated: September 17, 2026 12:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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Advanced LITE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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