Is LITE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, LITE is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LITE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of LITE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LITE to be between $739.39 and $914.85. The current price is $956.14.

What is the analyst price target for LITE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LITE is $1148.30. This implies a potential upside of 20.1% from current levels.

LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC

$956.14

17.11 (1.82%) ▲

5d: +8.74%

30d: +58.73%

90d: +11.1%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your LITE Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 11, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $890.17 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LITE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1607.21

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$997.95

4.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $956.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $739.39 to $914.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.0) compared to its historical average (51.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $784.47, while resistance sits at $999.67.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1148.30 (+20.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $739.39 - $914.85

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($1148.30)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $739.39 - $914.85

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $784.47

Resistance Level $999.68

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.96

Wall Street Target $1148.30 (+20.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 109.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 71.1%

Profit Margin -230.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -17.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 29.0 vs 51.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -17.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $860.53 (-10%)

2-Year Target $774.47 (-19%)

3-Year Target $697.03 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 29→52) $1246.65 (+30%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 29.0, Growth: 52.7%) $3226.97 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 52.7%) $2236.19 (+134%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 52.7%) $1900.76 (+99%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.0 to 51.8

Stabilization Target: $1710.08 (+78.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +78.9%

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Last updated: August 27, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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Advanced LITE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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