MC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$68.56
1.99 (2.99%)
▲
5d:
+3.46%
30d:
+1.05%
90d:
+10.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.93
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $68.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.71 to $68.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$65.71 -
$68.97
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($71.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.71 -
$68.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.95
Resistance Level
$70.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.50
Wall Street Target
$71.50
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.90
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$69.25
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$69.59
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 27.0%)
$161.12
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 27.0%)
$140.52
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 27.0%)
$119.45
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.87
Bull Case
$99.93
(+46%)
Analyst growth 36.5%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$90.85
(+33%)
Market implied 36.5%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$45.27
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 20, 2026 8:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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