MOELIS & (MC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$54.55
-0.77 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
-4.43%
30d:
-8.37%
90d:
-18.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.91
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $54.55, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.95 to $63.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.50 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.50 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$55.95 -
$63.29
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($67.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.95 -
$63.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.35
Resistance Level
$58.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.03
Wall Street Target
$67.50
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.22
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$48.10
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$45.16
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$54.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.4%)
$155.82
(+186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 26.4%)
$110.10
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 26.4%)
$93.58
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$83.89
(+54%)
Analyst growth 37.9%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$76.26
(+40%)
Market implied 37.9%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$37.62
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$66.09
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 9:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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