MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$89.73
-1.03 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-0.02%
30d:
+21.27%
90d:
+46.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MMSI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MMSI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.55
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $89.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.65 to $85.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (17.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.65 -
$85.04
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($99.82)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.65 -
$85.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.59
Resistance Level
$92.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.68
Wall Street Target
$99.82
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.21
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$97.79
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$101.50
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$90.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$114.89
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$111.78
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$95.01
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$190.49
(+112%)
Analyst growth 91.3%, PE expands to 41.3
Base Case
$173.17
(+93%)
Market implied 91.3%, PE stable at 37.6
Bear Case
$61.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 18, 2026 3:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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