MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$70.14
0.80 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
+4.87%
30d:
+18.36%
90d:
+22.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.65
11.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $70.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.91 to $67.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$61.91 -
$67.54
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($71.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 4.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.91 -
$67.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.04
Resistance Level
$70.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.69
Wall Street Target
$71.33
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.9%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.75
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$73.40
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$75.09
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.52
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 54.6%)
$506.46
(+622%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 54.6%)
$236.72
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 54.6%)
$201.21
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$137.01
(+95%)
Analyst growth 79.6%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$124.55
(+78%)
Market implied 79.6%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$47.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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