MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$71.68
0.63 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
-1.92%
30d:
+0.14%
90d:
+12.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTH trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MTH trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.01
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $71.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.23 to $74.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$71.23 -
$74.44
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($82.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.0% growth with -13.8% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.23 -
$74.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.54
Resistance Level
$75.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.75
Wall Street Target
$82.38
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.26
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$79.03
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$82.98
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.05
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.1%)
$222.85
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 22.1%)
$130.44
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 22.1%)
$110.87
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.60
Bull Case
$103.67
(+45%)
Analyst growth 32.7%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$94.25
(+32%)
Market implied 32.7%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$48.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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