MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$70.20
-0.61 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-3.77%
30d:
-13.92%
90d:
+4.25%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.18
11.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $70.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.98 to $80.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.62 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.62 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.98 -
$80.86
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with -17.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.98 -
$80.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.13
Resistance Level
$78.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.83
Wall Street Target
$81.63
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.96
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$73.75
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$75.60
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.52
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 29.6%)
$292.83
(+317%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 29.6%)
$152.94
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 29.6%)
$130.00
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.42
Bull Case
$93.18
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.6%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$84.71
(+21%)
Market implied 19.6%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$48.15
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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