TMHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock
$71.72
0.12 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
-0.32%
30d:
+24.1%
90d:
+20.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMHC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TMHC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.99
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMHC is currently trading at $71.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.51 to $72.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$58.51 -
$72.72
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
56.7%
Protect Your Profits
TMHC is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($66.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with -26.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.51 -
$72.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.17
Resistance Level
$71.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.18
Wall Street Target
$66.60
(-7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.39
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$79.39
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$83.60
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$249.47
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$128.01
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 21.4%)
$108.81
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.71
Bull Case
$75.18
(+5%)
Analyst growth -4.5%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$68.35
(-5%)
Market implied -4.5%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$48.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TMHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMHC price and gamma walls.
