TMHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock
$72.45
-0.02 (-0.03%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+1.12%
90d:
+11.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TMHC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TMHC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.30
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMHC is currently trading at $72.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.01 to $72.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$72.01 -
$72.48
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
Protect Your Profits
TMHC is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($66.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.0% growth with -26.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.01 -
$72.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.85
(1.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.80
Resistance Level
$72.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$66.75
(-7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.06
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$79.87
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$83.86
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$239.96
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 21.4%)
$129.51
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$110.08
(+52%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TMHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMHC price and gamma walls.
