TMHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock
$72.45
-0.02 (-0.03%)
▼
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+1.12%
90d:
+11.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMHC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TMHC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.30
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMHC is currently trading at $72.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.74 to $72.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMHC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.74 -
$72.24
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.5%
Protect Your Profits
TMHC is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($66.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.0% growth with -26.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.74 -
$72.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.97
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.80
Resistance Level
$72.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$66.75
(-7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.06
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$79.87
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$83.86
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$239.96
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 21.4%)
$129.51
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$110.08
(+52%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TMHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMHC price and gamma walls.
