Is TOL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TOL is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TOL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TOL to be between $141.46 and $151.83. The current price is $134.92.

What is the analyst price target for TOL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TOL is $171.87. This implies a potential upside of 27.4% from current levels.

Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.

OPERATIVE BUILDERS

$134.92

2.44 (1.84%) ▲

5d: -4.85%

30d: -9.16%

90d: -8.35%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TOL Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 18, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $141.73 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$200.63

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$124.57

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $134.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.46 to $151.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $130.26, while resistance sits at $149.19.

Market Sentiment: TOL scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.87 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $141.46 - $151.83

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($171.87)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $141.46 - $151.83

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $130.26

Resistance Level $149.19

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.61

Wall Street Target $171.87 (+27.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -9.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -20.4%

Profit Margin 11.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.6 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $132.22 (-2%)

2-Year Target $129.58 (-4%)

3-Year Target $126.99 (-6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) $134.76 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.0%) $376.89 (+179%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 10.0%) $179.59 (+33%)

Bear: (PE: 8.2, Growth: 10.0%) $152.65 (+13%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 10.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41

Bull Case $164.84 (+22%)

Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 11.7

Base Case $149.86 (+11%)

Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 10.7

Bear Case $90.09 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.2

Stabilization Target: $143.18 (+6.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.1%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stephen F East SELL 1000 shares 2026-04-15

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