Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$135.05
-0.45 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
-1.83%
90d:
-7.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TOL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TOL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.62
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $135.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.80 to $136.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.83 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.83 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$132.80 -
$136.48
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
18th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 18th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($168.83)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.80 -
$136.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.59
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.44
Resistance Level
$136.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.91
Wall Street Target
$168.83
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$132.90
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$131.83
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$134.31
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$333.06
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$166.26
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$141.32
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$163.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$148.74
(+10%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$92.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$137.59
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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