Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$136.36
1.61 (1.19%)
â˛
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-2.75%
90d:
-13.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TOL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TOL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.06
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $136.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.49 to $143.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $139.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.40 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $139.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.40 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$133.49 -
$143.76
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($171.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.49 -
$143.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.11
Resistance Level
$139.42
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.87
Wall Street Target
$171.40
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.00
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$133.65
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$132.31
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
$136.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$360.61
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.6%)
$174.55
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$148.37
(+9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$164.93
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$149.94
(+10%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$91.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$140.85
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F East
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-15
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