Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$152.19
-4.14 (-2.65%)
▼
5d:
+1.98%
30d:
+15.16%
90d:
+2.46%
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Earnings: Dec 14, 2026
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Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (30%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$132.18 – $148.68
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.2x
FAIR
vs 10.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$169.11
+11.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$138.23 / $162.71
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.96
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $152.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.18 to $148.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $138.23, while resistance sits at $162.71.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.11 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $138.23, while resistance sits at $162.71.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.11 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$132.18 -
$148.68
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$132.18 -
$148.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$138.23
Resistance Level
$162.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($169.11)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with -9.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.22
Wall Street Target
$169.11
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.21
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$162.40
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$167.76
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$152.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$328.29
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$185.44
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 6.8%)
$157.62
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$187.99
(+24%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$170.90
(+12%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$106.30
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TOL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding Toll Brothers, Inc. with no newsworthy articles to consider.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong business fundamentals
High-end residential real estate
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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