PHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$126.55
0.93 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
+3.02%
30d:
+8.81%
90d:
+6.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.44
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $126.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.45 to $122.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.45 -
$122.97
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($138.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -12.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.45 -
$122.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.00
Resistance Level
$123.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.30
Wall Street Target
$138.08
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$127.13
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$127.89
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$330.11
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$171.34
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$145.64
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.33
Bull Case
$150.23
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.6%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$136.57
(+9%)
Market implied 7.6%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$86.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin A Henry
SELL
5173 shares
2026-02-24
Brien P O'meara
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-06
Matthew William Koart
SELL
15309 shares
2026-02-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PHM price and gamma walls.
