PHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$126.47
-2.27 (-1.76%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
+3.36%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PHM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PHM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$178.45
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $126.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.41 to $134.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $121.77, while resistance sits at $136.22.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.62 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $121.77, while resistance sits at $136.22.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $140.62 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$124.41 -
$134.03
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($140.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with -9.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.41 -
$134.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.77
Resistance Level
$136.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.25
Wall Street Target
$140.62
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.72
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$126.98
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$127.23
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.66
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$314.01
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$170.42
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 10.5%)
$144.86
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.79
Bull Case
$162.60
(+29%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$147.82
(+17%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$87.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin A Henry
SELL
5173 shares
2026-02-24
Brien P O'meara
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-06
Matthew William Koart
SELL
15309 shares
2026-02-06
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