Pultegroup (PHM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$129.50
-1.10 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-4.76%
30d:
+16.06%
90d:
-0.8%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
Protect PHM Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$112.00 – $129.08
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.7x
STRETCHED
vs 11.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$132.41
+2.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$120.18 / $139.87
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PHM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.02
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $129.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.00 to $129.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $120.17, while resistance sits at $139.87.
Market Sentiment: PHM scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $120.17, while resistance sits at $139.87.
Market Sentiment: PHM scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$112.00 -
$129.08
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$112.00 -
$129.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$120.18
Resistance Level
$139.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PHM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($132.41)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.0% growth with -9.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.74
Wall Street Target
$132.41
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.5%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 11.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.57
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$148.26
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$158.64
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.2%)
$194.18
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 1.2%)
$134.31
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 1.2%)
$109.51
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.36
Bull Case
$144.70
(+12%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$131.54
(+2%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$88.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PHM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 17, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Michael Burry, known for his successful bet against subprime mortgages in The Big Short, has tweeted positively about $DJT, $GME, $PHA, and $PHM. No recent news articles were found for $PHM.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment from Michael Burry
No new information from news articles
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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