Pultegroup (PHM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$118.35
5.46 (4.84%)
▲
5d:
+4.74%
30d:
-0.3%
90d:
-8.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PHM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PHM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$161.04
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $118.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.58 to $119.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.35 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.35 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$112.58 -
$119.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PHM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($135.35)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.58 -
$119.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.16
Resistance Level
$119.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.41
Wall Street Target
$135.35
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.52
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$108.20
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$105.93
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$112.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$271.65
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$142.37
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$121.02
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.80
Bull Case
$139.43
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$126.75
(+12%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$77.88
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$120.39
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PHM price and gamma walls.
