MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$70.68
-1.55 (-2.15%)
▼
5d:
-4.25%
30d:
-0.7%
90d:
+15.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.89
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $70.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.44 to $74.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.38 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.44 -
$74.68
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($82.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.6% growth with -13.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.44 -
$74.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.54
Resistance Level
$75.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$82.38
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.93
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$77.33
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$80.89
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 22.1%)
$223.30
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 22.1%)
$128.62
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$109.32
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75
Bull Case
$102.07
(+44%)
Analyst growth 28.5%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$92.79
(+31%)
Market implied 28.5%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$49.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 18, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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