MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$73.83
-1.67 (-2.21%)
▼
5d:
-7.6%
30d:
+4.63%
90d:
+10.94%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.40
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $73.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.15 to $81.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.62 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.62 (+10.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$71.15 -
$81.24
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.5% growth with -17.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.15 -
$81.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.00
Resistance Level
$72.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.39
Wall Street Target
$81.63
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.15
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$80.62
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$84.25
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.0%)
$303.26
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 29.0%)
$158.55
(+115%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 29.0%)
$134.76
(+83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.48
Bull Case
$98.26
(+33%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$89.33
(+21%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$51.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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