MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$75.89
0.81 (1.08%)
▲
5d:
+4.1%
30d:
+18.8%
90d:
+23.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.05
0.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $75.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.70 to $73.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.70 -
$73.28
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.9% growth with -17.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.70 -
$73.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.00
Resistance Level
$72.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$80.25
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 9.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.51
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$84.20
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$89.17
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.69
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.0%)
$303.26
(+304%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 29.0%)
$161.23
(+115%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 29.0%)
$135.06
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.48
Bull Case
$98.56
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$89.60
(+19%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$51.50
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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