Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$63.85
-0.52 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
-1.74%
30d:
-5.22%
90d:
-20.09%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.69
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $63.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.11 to $69.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.17, while resistance sits at $66.79.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.38 (+24.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.17, while resistance sits at $66.79.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.38 (+24.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$63.11 -
$69.29
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($80.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with -13.8% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.11 -
$69.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.53
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.17
Resistance Level
$66.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.97
Wall Street Target
$80.38
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.79
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$67.23
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$68.71
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.6%)
$199.51
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 18.6%)
$107.27
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 18.6%)
$91.18
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.80
Bull Case
$84.53
(+31%)
Analyst growth 22.3%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$76.84
(+19%)
Market implied 22.3%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$42.74
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTH price and gamma walls.
