Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$63.63
4.31 (7.27%)
▲
5d:
+5.56%
30d:
-0.36%
90d:
-12.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.56
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $63.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.67 to $64.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.22 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.22 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$59.67 -
$64.91
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($75.22)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with -13.8% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.67 -
$64.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.30
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.66
Resistance Level
$63.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.61
Wall Street Target
$75.22
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.8%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$60.51
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$61.12
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$171.46
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$91.63
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 15.6%)
$77.88
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$77.31
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$70.28
(+19%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$40.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTH price and gamma walls.
