Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$66.53
-0.72 (-1.07%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.22%
30d:
+14.21%
90d:
-9.63%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
Protect MTH Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (53%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$59.13 â $67.65
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.6x
STRETCHED
vs 10.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$70.63
+6.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$62.00 / $75.73
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Get Alerted When MTH Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.07
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $66.53, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.13 to $67.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $62.00, while resistance sits at $75.72.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $62.00, while resistance sits at $75.72.
Market Sentiment: MTH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$59.13 -
$67.65
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$59.13 -
$67.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$3.37
(5.1%)
Support Level
$62.00
Resistance Level
$75.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.6% growth with -17.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.56
Wall Street Target
$70.63
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.2%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 10.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.25
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$82.86
(+25%)
3-Year Target
$92.47
(+39%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$105.52
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 5.2%)
$77.36
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 5.2%)
$55.79
(-16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.44
Bull Case
$76.13
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$69.21
(+4%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$45.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share MTH Analysis
Share this live MTH analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTH)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Homebuilder Meritage Homes (MTH) reported a revenue miss of 10% in Q3 2026, with revenue coming in at $1.17 billion versus the estimated $1.30 billion. The company also reported lower-than-expected EPS of $1.11 versus the estimated $1.14. The stock dropped following the earnings release.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings miss
revenue decline
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Residential Construction Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Residential Construction by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$169 | 31 SELL |
|
TMHC
Taylor Morn Home |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$67 | 49 HOLD |
|
PHM
PulteGroup Inc |
BUY
18 analysts |
$132 | 40 HOLD |
|
DHI
DR Horton Inc |
SELL
21 analysts |
$147 | 51 HOLD |
|
LEN
Lennar Corporation |
SELL
21 analysts |
$78 | 52 HOLD |
Advanced MTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTH price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive MTH Research Pages
