OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$72.79
-0.63 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-14.36%
30d:
-12.38%
90d:
-22.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.09
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.51
29.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $72.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.56 to $82.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.33 (+66.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.33 (+66.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$76.56 -
$82.71
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OLLI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.7% below Wall St target ($121.33)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-14.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.56 -
$82.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.61
Resistance Level
$84.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.06
Wall Street Target
$121.33
(+66.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 22.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.51
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$58.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$53.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$75.34
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$153.35
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$113.07
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$96.11
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$90.54
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$82.31
(+13%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$49.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$103.35
(+42.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
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SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
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SELL
3898 shares
2026-03-27
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Advanced OLLI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OLLI price and gamma walls.
