OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$76.07
1.32 (1.77%)
â˛
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
+16.6%
90d:
-8.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 02, 2026
9d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $74.75 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OLLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OLLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.95
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.21
20.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $76.07, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.15 to $77.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.20 (+39.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.20 (+39.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$67.15 -
$77.95
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OLLI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($106.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.15 -
$77.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.02
Resistance Level
$81.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.78
Wall Street Target
$106.20
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.14
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$64.67
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$59.62
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â21)
$76.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$141.31
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$118.16
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$100.44
(+32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$92.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$83.87
(+10%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$50.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$97.00
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Swygert
SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
John W Swygert
SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
John W Swygert
SELL
3898 shares
2026-03-27
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Advanced OLLI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OLLI price and gamma walls.
