OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$74.67
1.20 (1.63%)
▲
5d:
+11.83%
30d:
+0.62%
90d:
-12.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OLLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OLLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.13
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.56
23.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $74.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.24 to $73.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.07 (+45.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.07 (+45.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.24 -
$73.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.7% below Wall St target ($107.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.24 -
$73.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.00
Resistance Level
$76.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.21
Wall Street Target
$107.07
(+45.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.64
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$60.44
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$54.82
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→22)
$73.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.8%)
$145.96
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 15.8%)
$114.12
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$97.01
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$89.77
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$81.61
(+11%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$49.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$98.36
(+33.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
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SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
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3898 shares
2026-03-27
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