Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$73.56
1.64 (2.28%)
▲
5d:
-0.18%
30d:
-5.99%
90d:
-12.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 02, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $76.28 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
Get Alerted When OLLI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.06
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.42
22.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $73.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.26 to $78.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $70.02, while resistance sits at $78.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.93 (+35.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $70.02, while resistance sits at $78.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.93 (+35.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$73.26 -
$78.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OLLI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($99.93)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.26 -
$78.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.02
Resistance Level
$78.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.23
Wall Street Target
$99.93
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 21.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.45
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$61.86
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$56.72
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$73.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.8%)
$142.02
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 15.8%)
$114.26
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$97.13
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$80.22
(+9%)
Analyst growth 1.4%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$72.93
(-1%)
Market implied 1.4%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$48.91
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$95.19
(+29.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Swygert
SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
John W Swygert
SELL
5231 shares
2026-03-31
John W Swygert
SELL
3898 shares
2026-03-27
Top Rated Discount Stores Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Discount Stores by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WMT
Walmart Inc. |
STRONG BUY
43 analysts |
$128 | 65 BUY |
|
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp |
BUY
38 analysts |
$1072 | 38 SELL |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporati… |
HOLD
31 analysts |
$139 | 50 HOLD |
|
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$136 | 54 HOLD |
|
BJ
BJs Wholesale Club Holdi… |
BUY
25 analysts |
$106 | 48 HOLD |
Advanced OLLI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OLLI price and gamma walls.
