OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$79.74
0.49 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
-3.29%
90d:
-26.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.0% annual earnings decline despite 26% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OLLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.0% annual earnings decline despite 26% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.71
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.76
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $79.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.81 to $85.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.53 (+65.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.53 (+65.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$77.81 -
$85.45
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.0% below Wall St target ($131.53)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.81 -
$85.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.76
Resistance Level
$84.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.59
Wall Street Target
$131.53
(+65.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 23.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.56
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$66.03
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$60.09
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$79.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 15.8%)
$154.27
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$123.86
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 15.8%)
$105.28
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$104.96
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$95.42
(+16%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$55.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$105.61
(+32.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-04-07
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