Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$88.06
0.15 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
+4.52%
30d:
+19.2%
90d:
+27.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 02, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OLLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OLLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.61
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.52
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $88.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.52 to $83.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OLLI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.93 (+13.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OLLI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.93 (+13.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$72.52 -
$83.26
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OLLI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($99.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.52 -
$83.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.56
Resistance Level
$88.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.43
Wall Street Target
$99.93
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$84.22
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$82.37
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$88.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$143.64
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$136.78
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 15.8%)
$116.26
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$98.06
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.4%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$89.15
(+1%)
Market implied 1.4%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$59.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$94.28
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Swygert
SELL
3330 shares
2026-04-07
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OLLI price and gamma walls.
