ON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$90.65
-28.09 (-23.66%)
▼
5d:
-25.46%
30d:
-27.42%
90d:
+48.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
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Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ON is down 25.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ON is down 25.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.53
16.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $90.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.48 to $127.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 23.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.78 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 23.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.78 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$109.48 -
$127.20
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-23.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -25.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.48 -
$127.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.71
Resistance Level
$132.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.01
Wall Street Target
$107.78
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.7%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.01
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$91.38
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$91.74
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$90.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 39.2%)
$253.60
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 39.2%)
$244.60
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 39.2%)
$207.91
(+129%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 38.31 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.37
Bull Case
$109.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$90.65
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$69.35
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 2:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
30000 shares
2026-04-16
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6114 shares
2026-03-13
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SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-12
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