TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$286.08
7.68 (2.76%)
▲
5d:
+3.75%
30d:
-7.28%
90d:
+0.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$420.60
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$261.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $286.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $277.88 to $300.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.5) is in line with its historical norms (30.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $286.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.45 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $286.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.45 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$277.88 -
$300.39
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($324.45)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$277.88 -
$300.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.74
Resistance Level
$286.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.51
Wall Street Target
$324.45
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.8%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.5 vs 30.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$281.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$276.44
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$271.74
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→30)
$285.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.5, Growth: 18.0%)
$470.62
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$333.93
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$283.84
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.60
Bull Case
$465.58
(+63%)
Analyst growth 52.0%, PE expands to 46.4
Base Case
$423.26
(+48%)
Market implied 52.0%, PE stable at 42.2
Bear Case
$189.31
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.5 to 30.0
Stabilization Target:
$301.02
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 08, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
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