Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SSD - Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
$170.14
-0.98 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-1.93%
90d:
-10.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$239.49
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$148.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $170.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.19 to $176.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+28.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+28.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$171.19 -
$176.23
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($219.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.19 -
$176.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.68
Resistance Level
$176.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.52
Wall Street Target
$219.00
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.21
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$160.41
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$155.76
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$169.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$232.74
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 6.5%)
$205.34
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$174.54
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.15
Bull Case
$199.75
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$181.59
(+7%)
Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$116.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$185.46
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 4:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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