TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$57.57
-0.48 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
-6.57%
90d:
+16.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Get Alerted When TCBK Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.61
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $57.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.91 to $59.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCBK scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCBK scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$55.91 -
$59.95
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 10% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.91 -
$59.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.40
Resistance Level
$59.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.25
Wall Street Target
$62.81
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
31.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.91
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$61.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$63.80
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.28
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$94.34
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$61.78
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 2.1%)
$52.51
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.17
Bull Case
$66.58
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.1%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$60.53
(+5%)
Market implied 5.1%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$39.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$20 | 56 HOLD |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$70 | 48 HOLD |
|
WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corpo… |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$180 | 56 HOLD |
|
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorp… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$92 | 57 HOLD |
|
FHN
First Horizon Corporation |
BUY
16 analysts |
$28 | 54 HOLD |
