Trico Bancshares (TCBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$50.77
-0.29 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-0.9%
30d:
-5.67%
90d:
-17.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.32
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $50.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.42 to $53.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $50.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.67 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $50.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.67 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.42 -
$53.42
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.42 -
$53.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.29
Resistance Level
$52.65
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.61
Wall Street Target
$58.67
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Profit Margin
31.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.11
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$49.46
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$48.82
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$50.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$92.03
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 2.0%)
$53.81
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$45.74
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.17
Bull Case
$58.89
(+16%)
Analyst growth 4.8%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$53.53
(+5%)
Market implied 4.8%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$34.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$52.90
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 15, 2026 5:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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