TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$49.24
0.13 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+4.1%
30d:
+18.51%
90d:
+12.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.57
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $49.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.86 to $47.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 218.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.86 -
$47.29
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.86 -
$47.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.07
Resistance Level
$50.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.47
Wall Street Target
$53.42
(+8.5%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
218.1%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.16
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$47.10
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$46.06
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$49.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$192.35
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$69.28
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$58.88
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.06
Bull Case
$108.04
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$98.22
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$33.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.76
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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