UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$37.59
-0.30 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
+6.28%
30d:
+1.73%
90d:
+4.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.99
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $37.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.16 to $37.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.54, while resistance sits at $40.00.
Market Sentiment: UGI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.54, while resistance sits at $40.00.
Market Sentiment: UGI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.16 -
$37.40
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.16 -
$37.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.54
Resistance Level
$40.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.54
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.23
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$38.88
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$39.54
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.4%)
$103.21
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 16.4%)
$59.36
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$50.45
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.96
Bull Case
$45.86
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$41.69
(+11%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$25.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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