UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$36.31
0.47 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
+3.98%
30d:
+4.37%
90d:
-4.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.37
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.35
7.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $36.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.10 to $35.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.10 -
$35.32
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.10 -
$35.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.53
Resistance Level
$35.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.87
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.20
(0%)
2-Year Target
$36.09
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$35.98
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$36.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$123.47
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$61.63
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 19.3%)
$52.39
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.88
Bull Case
$46.01
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$41.83
(+17%)
Market implied 16.0%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$24.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$36.74
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
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