UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$34.49
0.70 (2.07%)
▲
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
-3.77%
90d:
-4.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.37
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.35
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $34.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.66 to $35.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$33.66 -
$35.24
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($43.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.66 -
$35.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.53
Resistance Level
$35.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.12
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.88
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$31.99
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$31.13
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$33.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$123.47
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$57.35
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 19.3%)
$48.75
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$43.74
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$39.76
(+18%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$22.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$36.74
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
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