YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
$8.48
-0.37 (-4.13%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.76%
30d:
+0.3%
90d:
-6.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
25d
Get Alerted When YMM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YMM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YMM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.30
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.50
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $8.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.13 to $8.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.5) is in line with its historical norms (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $8.92. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.54 (+41.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $8.92. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.54 (+41.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.13 -
$8.62
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.9% below Wall St target ($12.54)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.13 -
$8.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.21
Resistance Level
$8.92
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.52
Wall Street Target
$12.54
(+41.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.68
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.52
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.37
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2â2)
$8.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$185.62
(+2000%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 17.0%)
$14.17
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 17.0%)
$12.05
(+36%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.57
Bull Case
$19.43
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$17.66
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$6.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.33
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is YMM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SNOW
Snowflake Inc. |
STRONG BUY
52 analysts |
$425 | 54 HOLD |
|
DDOG
Datadog Inc |
STRONG BUY
48 analysts |
$290 | 50 HOLD |
|
U
Unity Software Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$50 | 48 HOLD |
|
CRM
Salesforce.com Inc |
STRONG BUY
56 analysts |
$286 | 44 HOLD |
|
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems IâĻ |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$406 | 41 HOLD |