ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$22.28
-0.23 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
+0.72%
30d:
-13.91%
90d:
-2.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.71
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.41
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $22.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.66 to $25.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.08 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZTO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.08 (+30.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.66 -
$25.21
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($29.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.66 -
$25.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.03
Resistance Level
$23.25
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.45
Wall Street Target
$29.08
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.94
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$19.69
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$18.51
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$21.70
(-3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 11.3%)
$464.15
(+1983%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 11.3%)
$30.72
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$26.11
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$49.02
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$44.56
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$15.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$26.12
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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