AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$17.29
0.53 (3.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.65%
30d:
+4.16%
90d:
-7.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
Get Alerted When AII Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.06
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $17.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.55 to $17.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.59, while resistance sits at $18.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.59, while resistance sits at $18.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.55 -
$17.08
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($23.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.55 -
$17.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.59
Resistance Level
$18.07
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.74
Wall Street Target
$23.75
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
27.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.58
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.90
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$15.25
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$17.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$82.07
(+375%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.63
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$18.39
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.84
Bull Case
$11.47
(-34%)
Analyst growth -37.8%, PE expands to 3.8
Base Case
$10.43
(-40%)
Market implied -37.8%, PE stable at 3.5
Bear Case
$11.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.58
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
BUY
25 analysts |
$241 | 61 BUY |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
SELL
28 analysts |
$313 | 63 BUY |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$345 | 57 HOLD |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
BUY
19 analysts |
$230 | 63 BUY |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 60 BUY |