AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$25.84
0.85 (3.40%)
â˛
5d:
+2.01%
30d:
+0.74%
90d:
+34.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AII is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AII is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.47
Based on -5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $25.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.41 to $26.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.15, while resistance sits at $26.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.15, while resistance sits at $26.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.41 -
$26.41
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.8% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.41 -
$26.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.15
Resistance Level
$26.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 6.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.34
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$28.92
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$30.60
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.71
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -14.3%)
$48.18
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -14.3%)
$18.84
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -14.3%)
$15.83
(-39%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$21.26
(-18%)
Analyst growth -22.7%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$19.32
(-25%)
Market implied -22.7%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$16.99
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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