AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$25.93
0.52 (2.05%)
â˛
5d:
-0.88%
30d:
+13.18%
90d:
+53.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AII is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AII is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.23
Based on -5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $25.93, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.21 to $26.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.21 -
$26.59
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
37.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.21 -
$26.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.17
Resistance Level
$26.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.00
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 6.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.59
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$29.36
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$31.23
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.76
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -14.3%)
$47.64
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -14.3%)
$18.90
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -14.3%)
$15.59
(-40%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$21.82
(-16%)
Analyst growth -21.9%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$19.84
(-24%)
Market implied -21.9%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$17.28
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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