AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$25.35
-0.21 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
+5.67%
30d:
+41.23%
90d:
+50.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.16
Based on -4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $25.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.54 to $23.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.12, while resistance sits at $26.41.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.12, while resistance sits at $26.41.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.54 -
$23.44
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
18.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.54 -
$23.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.12
Resistance Level
$26.41
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.82
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 6.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.92
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$28.59
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$30.36
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.23
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -13.9%)
$47.40
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -13.9%)
$18.48
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -13.9%)
$15.35
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.35
Bull Case
$20.94
(-17%)
Analyst growth -25.5%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$19.04
(-25%)
Market implied -25.5%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$17.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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