AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$20.29
0.03 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+8.68%
30d:
+6.62%
90d:
+3.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.06
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $20.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.30 to $19.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.50 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.50 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.30 -
$19.58
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($24.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 26.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.30 -
$19.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.50
Resistance Level
$20.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$24.50
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
27.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.86
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$21.15
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.41
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$78.11
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$25.38
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.58
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.82
Bull Case
$13.92
(-31%)
Analyst growth -37.5%, PE expands to 4.6
Base Case
$12.66
(-38%)
Market implied -37.5%, PE stable at 4.2
Bear Case
$13.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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