AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$28.77
-0.18 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+4.43%
30d:
+10.82%
90d:
+60.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.90
Based on -9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $28.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.38 to $27.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.38 -
$27.55
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.38 -
$27.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.11
Resistance Level
$29.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.76
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(-1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.24
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$33.93
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$36.85
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.60
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$47.54
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: -23.7%)
$20.97
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -23.7%)
$16.28
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.57
Bull Case
$22.88
(-21%)
Analyst growth -28.2%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$20.80
(-28%)
Market implied -28.2%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$19.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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