AII
American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
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AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$28.14
+0.38 (+1.37%)
▲
5d:
-4.42%
30d:
+3.76%
90d:
+22.83%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (67%)
Quality Score
60/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$26.73 – $29.03
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.6x
STRETCHED
vs 6.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$28.25
+0.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$26.12 / $30.00
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AII trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.09
Based on -9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $28.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.73 to $29.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.12, while resistance sits at $30.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.12, while resistance sits at $30.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$26.73 -
$29.03
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$26.73 -
$29.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$26.12
Resistance Level
$30.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.57
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(+0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 6.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.19
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$32.40
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$34.76
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.99
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$47.54
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -23.7%)
$20.51
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$16.52
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$22.68
(-19%)
Analyst growth -25.7%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$20.62
(-27%)
Market implied -25.7%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$18.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AII)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2025
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on AII are bullish (sentiment score +0.99) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 10:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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