ALM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.22
+0.59 (+7.73%)
▲
5d:
+1.23%
30d:
-18.61%
90d:
-49.76%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (95%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$8.10 – $11.12
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
3.8x
CHEAP
vs 22.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$23.22
+182.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$7.41 / $9.27
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -44.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.16
85.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALM is currently trading at $8.22, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.10 to $11.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.8) compared to its historical average (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 44.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.41, while resistance sits at $9.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.22 (+182.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.41, while resistance sits at $9.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.22 (+182.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.10 -
$11.12
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.10 -
$11.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$7.41
Resistance Level
$9.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 182.5% below Wall St target ($23.22)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.84
Wall Street Target
$23.22
(+182.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
497.7%
Profit Margin
125.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-44.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 22.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-44.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.40
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.66
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→22)
$34.46
(+319%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 195.6%)
$143.37
(+1644%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: 195.6%)
$27.74
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 195.6%)
$23.58
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$16.79
(+104%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.6
Base Case
$15.26
(+86%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case
$5.19
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.8 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$47.27
(+475.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+475.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Almonty Industries reported strong Q3 financial results with a significant increase in revenue, net income, and EBITDA. The company also announced the first tungsten concentrate production at its Sangdong Mine and confirmed the expansion of Phase II.
Key Retail Themes:
financial results
production growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 1:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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