ALM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALM - Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares
$18.51
0.82 (4.64%)
▲
5d:
+22.66%
30d:
+30.54%
90d:
-1.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $13.29 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ALM is 17.2% above its trading range ($15.79). Market expects -23.8% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ALM is 17.2% above its trading range ($15.79). Market expects -23.8% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.67
60.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALM is currently trading at $18.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.42 to $15.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.82 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.82 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.42 -
$15.79
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+17.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($24.82)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.42 -
$15.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.67
Resistance Level
$19.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.99
Wall Street Target
$24.82
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
497.7%
Profit Margin
125.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-23.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-23.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.99
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.49
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→27)
$30.50
(+65%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 251.7%)
$104.58
(+465%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 251.7%)
$62.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 251.7%)
$53.10
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.81
Bull Case
$22.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$18.51
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$14.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$41.84
(+126.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+126.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALM price and gamma walls.