ALM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALM - Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares
$15.49
-1.08 (-6.52%)
▼
5d:
-13.17%
30d:
+7.79%
90d:
-9.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $18.69 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALM is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALM is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.28
70.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALM is currently trading at $15.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.18 to $18.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (25.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 29.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.94, while resistance sits at $19.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.08 (+68.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.94, while resistance sits at $19.45. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.08 (+68.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.18 -
$18.36
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.4% below Wall St target ($26.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.18 -
$18.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.94
Resistance Level
$19.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.96
Wall Street Target
$26.08
(+68.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
497.7%
Profit Margin
125.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-29.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 25.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-29.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→26)
$32.65
(+111%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 302.2%)
$117.73
(+660%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 302.2%)
$52.28
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 302.2%)
$44.44
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.91 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.11
Bull Case
$18.70
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$15.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$11.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 25.9
Stabilization Target:
$44.79
(+189.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+189.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALM price and gamma walls.