AerSale (ASLE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASLE - AerSale Corporation Common Stock
$4.67
-0.03 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-1.89%
30d:
-14.94%
90d:
-28.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: ASLE shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 24th percentile) and market pricing in only 15.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: ASLE shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 24th percentile) and market pricing in only 15.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASLE is currently trading at $4.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.76 to $5.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASLE scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+55.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASLE scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+55.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.76 -
$5.40
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.2% below Wall St target ($7.25)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 15.9% growth expectation is conservative given 129% recent growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.76 -
$5.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.38
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.54
Resistance Level
$5.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.62
Wall Street Target
$7.25
(+55.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-33.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
128.9%
Profit Margin
-1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 11.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.41
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$6.27
(+34%)
3-Year Target
$7.27
(+56%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 71.0%)
$17.76
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 71.0%)
$15.76
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 71.0%)
$10.11
(+116%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASLE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASLE price and gamma walls.
