ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
RETAIL-MISCELLANEOUS SHOPPING GOODS STORES
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$67.29
-2.03 (-2.93%)
▼
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
+20.66%
90d:
+40.23%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 08, 2026
24d
Protect ASO Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (21%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$53.61 – $64.64
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.3x
STRETCHED
vs 8.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$62.37
-7.3% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$58.66 / $71.29
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.48
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $67.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.61 to $64.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (8.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.66, while resistance sits at $71.29.
Market Sentiment: ASO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.66, while resistance sits at $71.29.
Market Sentiment: ASO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$53.61 -
$64.64
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$53.61 -
$64.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$58.66
Resistance Level
$71.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($62.37)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$62.37
(-7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 8.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.81
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$78.78
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$85.24
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$67.72
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$176.45
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$91.70
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$72.86
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.87
Bull Case
$84.69
(+26%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$76.99
(+14%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$47.14
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ASO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 16, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits notes $ASO's 26% gain in the last 3 months, generating bullish sentiment.
Key Retail Themes:
Price appreciation
Quiet market movement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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