ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$49.70
-2.18 (-4.20%)
▼
5d:
+0.91%
30d:
-2.61%
90d:
-5.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 09, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.34
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $49.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.92 to $52.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.32 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.32 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$49.92 -
$52.85
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($60.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.92 -
$52.85
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.61
Resistance Level
$57.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.62
Wall Street Target
$60.32
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.16
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$46.67
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$45.22
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$49.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$193.51
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$67.73
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 10.9%)
$57.57
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.66
Bull Case
$65.66
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$59.69
(+15%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$35.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$54.77
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey C Tweedy
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
