Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$60.33
-1.45 (-2.35%)
▼
5d:
+2.9%
30d:
+25.35%
90d:
+20.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.61
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $60.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.26 to $56.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.26 -
$56.69
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
18.1%
Protect Your Profits
ASO is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.89)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.7% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.26 -
$56.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.28
Resistance Level
$61.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$60.89
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.17
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$66.13
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$69.24
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.86
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$176.45
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$82.21
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$69.88
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$71.70
(+19%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$65.18
(+8%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$42.01
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 2:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
