BFAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFAM - BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
$74.76
1.45 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
-1.25%
30d:
+16.29%
90d:
-7.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.78
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.45
9.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFAM is currently trading at $74.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.90 to $73.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.99, while resistance sits at $78.06.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.11 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.99, while resistance sits at $78.06.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.11 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.90 -
$73.29
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($91.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.90 -
$73.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.99
Resistance Level
$78.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.02
Wall Street Target
$91.11
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.40
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$68.18
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$65.11
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$74.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$187.80
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 14.5%)
$112.26
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$95.42
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.32
Bull Case
$139.48
(+87%)
Analyst growth 73.0%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$126.80
(+70%)
Market implied 73.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$49.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$85.56
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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