BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BJRI - BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$59.25
1.96 (3.42%)
▲
5d:
-4.37%
30d:
-4.05%
90d:
+0.85%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BJRI trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: BJRI trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.37
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BJRI is currently trading at $59.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.07 to $63.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.8) compared to its historical average (18.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.86, while resistance sits at $63.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: BJRI scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.14 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.86, while resistance sits at $63.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: BJRI scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.14 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$59.07 -
$63.77
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
98.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($75.14)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.2% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.07 -
$63.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.86
Resistance Level
$63.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.76
Wall Street Target
$75.14
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 18.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.33
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$65.57
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$68.98
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.28
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$89.40
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$83.81
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$71.24
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$90.79
(+53%)
Analyst growth 44.1%, PE expands to 33.3
Base Case
$82.54
(+39%)
Market implied 44.1%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$38.96
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BJRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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