BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BJRI - BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$56.78
-2.29 (-3.88%)
▼
5d:
-4.65%
30d:
-7.75%
90d:
-12.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BJRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BJRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.84
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BJRI is currently trading at $56.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.70 to $61.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (18.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.43 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $56.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.43 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.70 -
$61.30
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($75.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.70 -
$61.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.35
Resistance Level
$61.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.98
Wall Street Target
$75.43
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 18.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.77
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$60.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$62.95
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$56.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 14.2%)
$84.47
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.2%)
$79.95
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.2%)
$67.96
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$94.03
(+66%)
Analyst growth 44.7%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$85.48
(+51%)
Market implied 44.7%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$40.17
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BJRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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