CGNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGNT - Cognyte Software Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$8.94
0.16 (1.82%)
▲
5d:
+7.58%
30d:
-0.22%
90d:
-4.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.03
19.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGNT is currently trading at $8.94, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.38 to $9.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.5) compared to its historical average (30.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+38.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+38.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$8.38 -
$9.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.0% below Wall St target ($12.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.38 -
$9.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.75
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.03
Resistance Level
$9.15
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.49
Wall Street Target
$12.33
(+38.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.8%
Profit Margin
-0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.5 vs 30.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.35
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$7.80
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$7.28
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→30)
$8.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.5, Growth: 55.3%)
$30.17
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 55.3%)
$25.54
(+186%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 55.3%)
$21.71
(+143%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.5 to 30.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.99
(+22.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CGNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CGNT price and gamma walls.
