CGNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGNT - Cognyte Software Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$8.66
-0.03 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
-0.46%
30d:
+2.61%
90d:
-3.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 09, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGNT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.2% annual earnings decline despite 178% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGNT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.2% annual earnings decline despite 178% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.03
21.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGNT is currently trading at $8.66, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.29 to $8.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (28.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 177.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $8.97.
Market Sentiment: CGNT scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+42.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $8.97.
Market Sentiment: CGNT scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+42.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$8.29 -
$8.72
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.4% below Wall St target ($12.33)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.29 -
$8.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.87
(10.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.21
Resistance Level
$8.97
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.73
Wall Street Target
$12.33
(+42.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
177.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 28.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.12
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.62
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$7.15
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→29)
$8.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 55.3%)
$29.23
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 55.3%)
$25.13
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 55.3%)
$21.36
(+147%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 28.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.51
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CGNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CGNT price and gamma walls.
