Chagee (CHA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.44
-0.51 (-3.94%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+10.28%
90d:
+11.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.55
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $12.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.30 to $12.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (0.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.00, while resistance sits at $13.13. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.31 (+18.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.00, while resistance sits at $13.13. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.31 (+18.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.30 -
$12.38
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.31)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.5% growth expectation is conservative given 591% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.30 -
$12.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.00
Resistance Level
$13.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.18
Wall Street Target
$15.31
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
591.4%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.5% premium
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 0.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.05
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$15.25
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$16.54
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.62
(-3%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$282.91
(+2085%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 9.1%)
$16.81
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$12.82
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$27.46
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$24.96
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$8.49
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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