Chagee (CHA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.24
-0.11 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
+7.75%
30d:
+22.28%
90d:
+2.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.65
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $12.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.17 to $11.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.1) compared to its historical average (0.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.20, while resistance sits at $12.66.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.05 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.20, while resistance sits at $12.66.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.05 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.17 -
$11.75
Company Quality Score
23/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($15.05)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.7% growth expectation is conservative given 591% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 23/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.17 -
$11.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.20
Resistance Level
$12.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.15
Wall Street Target
$15.05
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
591.4%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.7% premium
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 0.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.30
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$14.46
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$15.72
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.34
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$291.68
(+2283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$16.58
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$13.01
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.02
Bull Case
$27.17
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$24.70
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$8.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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