CHA
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
Retail-Eating & Drinking Places
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Chagee (CHA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.38
-0.05 (-0.44%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.09%
30d:
-1.16%
90d:
+20.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$11.45 â $12.57
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.1x
STRETCHED
vs 0.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.60
+25.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.66 / $13.01
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.7% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.39
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $12.38, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.45 to $12.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.1) compared to its historical average (0.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.66, while resistance sits at $13.01.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.60 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.66, while resistance sits at $13.01.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.60 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.45 -
$12.57
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$11.45 -
$12.57
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$11.66
Resistance Level
$13.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($15.60)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.7% growth expectation is conservative given 591% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.14
Wall Street Target
$15.60
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
591.4%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
1.1 vs 0.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.26
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$14.15
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$15.10
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â1)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.96
(-4%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$279.01
(+2145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$15.96
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$12.64
(+2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$27.65
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$25.14
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$8.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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