Chagee (CHA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$10.93
-0.21 (-1.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.21%
30d:
-5.86%
90d:
-3.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.65
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $10.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.02 to $12.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (0.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.04 (+35.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHA scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.04 (+35.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.02 -
$12.22
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.0% below Wall St target ($15.04)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.5% growth expectation is conservative given 591% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.02 -
$12.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.10
Resistance Level
$12.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.04
Wall Street Target
$15.04
(+35.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
591.4%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 0.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.64
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$12.17
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$12.71
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.96
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$295.01
(+2548%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 10.6%)
$15.09
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$12.83
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$25.74
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$23.40
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$7.96
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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