Is COF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, COF is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: COF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of COF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for COF to be between $198.33 and $215.43. The current price is $194.72.

What is the analyst price target for COF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for COF is $257.86. This implies a potential upside of 32.4% from current levels.

Capital One Financial (COF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

COF - Capital One Financial

NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS

$194.72

0.24 (0.12%) ▲

5d: -2.74%

30d: -10.1%

90d: -5.7%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your COF Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 20, 2026 16d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $193.07 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$346.22

Based on 10.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$214.97

9.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $194.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.33 to $215.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $189.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: COF scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.86 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $198.33 - $215.43

Company Quality Score 69/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($257.86)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 26% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $198.33 - $215.43

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $189.78

Resistance Level $207.00

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.17

Wall Street Target $257.86 (+32.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1111.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -3.2%

Profit Margin 21.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.2 vs 8.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $190.24 (-2%)

2-Year Target $185.87 (-5%)

3-Year Target $181.59 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→9) $193.41 (-1%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.8%) $794.10 (+308%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 17.8%) $317.97 (+63%)

Bear: (PE: 6.9, Growth: 17.8%) $270.27 (+39%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 10.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.15

Bull Case $280.98 (+44%)

Analyst growth 31.3%, PE expands to 11.8

Base Case $255.43 (+31%)

Market implied 31.3%, PE stable at 10.7

Bear Case $132.25 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.7

Stabilization Target: $207.39 (+6.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.5%

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM

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Advanced COF Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COF price and gamma walls.

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