COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$203.02
1.50 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
+14.29%
90d:
+5.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
7d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
Get Alerted When COF Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called COF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$394.21
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$244.77
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $203.02, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.77 to $205.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $207.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.09 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $207.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.09 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$186.77 -
$205.26
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($256.09)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.77 -
$205.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.24
Resistance Level
$207.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.37
Wall Street Target
$256.09
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$199.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$196.98
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$194.02
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$201.78
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.0%)
$984.21
(+385%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 23.0%)
$378.03
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 23.0%)
$321.32
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.72 | Forward EPS (Implied): $20.74
Bull Case
$243.34
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$201.52
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$154.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$211.14
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Celia Karam
SELL
1099 shares
2026-04-01
Lia Dean
SELL
1692 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Top Rated Credit Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
V
Visa Inc. Class A |
STRONG BUY
41 analysts |
$401 | 61 BUY |
|
MA
Mastercard Inc |
STRONG BUY
42 analysts |
$644 | 66 BUY |
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc |
HOLD
47 analysts |
$51 | 63 BUY |
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$88 | 68 BUY |
|
AXP
American Express Company |
HOLD
30 analysts |
$371 | 65 BUY |
Advanced COF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COF price and gamma walls.
