Capital One Financial (COF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$197.11
+1.27 (+0.65%)
â˛
5d:
-4.46%
30d:
-0.48%
90d:
-11.94%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$197.10 â $205.74
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
FAIR
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$255.19
+29.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$190.62 / $215.15
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $206.31 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$293.59
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$182.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $197.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.10 to $205.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.62, while resistance sits at $215.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.62, while resistance sits at $215.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$197.10 -
$205.74
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$197.10 -
$205.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$190.62
Resistance Level
$215.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding COF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($255.19)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.26
Wall Street Target
$255.19
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$190.47
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$187.23
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â9)
$197.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$636.96
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 10.4%)
$264.92
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 10.4%)
$225.18
(+14%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.32
Bull Case
$314.99
(+60%)
Analyst growth 46.2%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$286.36
(+45%)
Market implied 46.2%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$133.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$207.61
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (COF)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits was flooded with bullish messages expressing surprise at the drop in $COF stock price without any apparent news catalyst.
Key Retail Themes:
buy the dip
surprise at price drop
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 11:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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