COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$197.81
-2.89 (-1.44%)
▼
5d:
+1.64%
30d:
+5.97%
90d:
+7.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$401.59
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$249.36
20.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $197.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.72 to $194.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $174.24, while resistance sits at $207.30.
Market Sentiment: COF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $254.67 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $174.24, while resistance sits at $207.30.
Market Sentiment: COF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $254.67 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$180.72 -
$194.85
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($254.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$180.72 -
$194.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.24
Resistance Level
$207.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.14
Wall Street Target
$254.67
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$192.86
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$188.04
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$183.34
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$198.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.3%)
$991.85
(+401%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 23.3%)
$370.90
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 23.3%)
$315.27
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 10.20 | Forward EPS (Implied): $19.67
Bull Case
$242.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$200.70
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$153.54
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$213.73
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Celia Karam
SELL
1099 shares
2026-04-01
Lia Dean
SELL
1692 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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