What is the fair value of COF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for COF to be between $195.59 and $203.44. The current price is $203.43.

What is the analyst price target for COF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for COF is $254.41. This implies a potential upside of 25.1% from current levels.

Capital One Financial (COF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

COF - Capital One Financial

NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS

$203.43

-3.23 (-1.56%) ▼

5d: +2.3%

30d: +3.74%

90d: +0.29%

BUY

HIGH Confidence

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 20, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $201.74 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

COF is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; COF has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-22.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$301.21

Based on 7.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$187.03

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $203.43, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.59 to $203.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $192.43, while resistance sits at $211.49.

Market Sentiment: COF scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $254.41 (+25.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $195.59 - $203.44

Company Quality Score 71/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 76.2%

All Signals

BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($254.41)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $195.59 - $203.44

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $192.43

Resistance Level $211.49

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.54

Wall Street Target $254.41 (+25.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 16.2%

Profit Margin 22.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.5 vs 8.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $202.01 (-1%)

2-Year Target $200.59 (-1%)

3-Year Target $199.19 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→9) $202.91 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.6%) $657.29 (+223%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 11.6%) $282.66 (+39%)

Bear: (PE: 7.3, Growth: 11.6%) $240.26 (+18%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 13.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.57

Bull Case $347.77 (+71%)

Analyst growth 53.0%, PE expands to 14.6

Base Case $316.15 (+55%)

Market implied 53.0%, PE stable at 13.3

Bear Case $140.53 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.7

Stabilization Target: $207.23 (+1.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.9%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COF price and gamma walls.

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