CVCO
Cavco Industries Inc.
MOBILE HOMES
Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$648.91
-7.06 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
-4.39%
30d:
+22.75%
90d:
+6.89%
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Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (34%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$515.42 – $630.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
26.2x
STRETCHED
vs 22.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$725.60
+10.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
41th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$522.10 / $692.86
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.21
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $648.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $515.42 to $630.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.2) compared to its historical average (22.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $522.10, while resistance sits at $692.86.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $725.60 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $522.10, while resistance sits at $692.86.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $725.60 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$515.42 -
$630.05
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$515.42 -
$630.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$39.40
(6.1%)
Support Level
$522.10
Resistance Level
$692.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($725.60)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.24
Wall Street Target
$725.60
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
26.2 vs 22.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$694.67
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$735.66
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$779.06
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$656.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$754.56
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$571.12
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$485.45
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.60
Bull Case
$783.02
(+19%)
Analyst growth 5.9%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$711.83
(+9%)
Market implied 5.9%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$456.94
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CVCO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Conestoga Capital Advisors remains bullish on Cavco Industries (CVCO) due to its strong competitive moat and resilient growth, as well as its position to benefit from the persistent need for affordable housing.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong competitive moat and resilient growth
Persistent need for affordable housing
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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