Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$532.40
16.15 (3.13%)
▲
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
-1.74%
90d:
-6.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.11
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $532.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $522.53 to $561.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $505.04, while resistance sits at $550.32. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $505.04, while resistance sits at $550.32. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+28.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$522.53 -
$561.95
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($665.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$522.53 -
$561.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$29.87
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$505.04
Resistance Level
$550.32
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.65
Wall Street Target
$665.00
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 22.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$505.41
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$494.80
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$484.40
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$516.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 4.8%)
$593.84
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$571.12
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$485.45
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.99
Bull Case
$621.45
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$564.96
(+9%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$353.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$550.00
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.