Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$577.20
16.94 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
+6.26%
30d:
+4.4%
90d:
-3.6%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.11
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $577.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $536.78 to $570.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $580.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $580.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $665.00 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$536.78 -
$570.25
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($665.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$536.78 -
$570.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$33.78
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$520.56
Resistance Level
$580.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.09
Wall Street Target
$665.00
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 22.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$586.44
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$595.82
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$605.35
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$576.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$663.95
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.8%)
$586.65
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 4.8%)
$498.65
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.00
Bull Case
$669.88
(+16%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$608.98
(+6%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$380.98
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVCO price and gamma walls.