Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc.
$529.64
6.29 (1.20%)
▲
5d:
-5.58%
30d:
-11.49%
90d:
-11.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.11
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVCO is currently trading at $529.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $552.86 to $596.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $515.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $646.67 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $515.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVCO scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $646.67 (+22.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$552.86 -
$596.04
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($646.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$552.86 -
$596.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$515.68
Resistance Level
$581.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.19
Wall Street Target
$646.67
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 22.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$522.75
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$515.96
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$509.25
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$528.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$609.24
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$580.04
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$493.03
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.35
Bull Case
$643.94
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$585.40
(+11%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$355.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 22.0
Stabilization Target:
$550.00
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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