DBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DBX - Dropbox, Inc. Class A
$26.51
0.71 (2.75%)
▲
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-2.72%
90d:
+8.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.64
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DBX is currently trading at $26.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.39 to $27.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.39 -
$27.83
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.39 -
$27.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.85
Resistance Level
$28.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.58
Wall Street Target
$26.17
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.23
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$24.68
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$24.13
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$25.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.1%)
$101.59
(+294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 11.1%)
$35.34
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 11.1%)
$30.04
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83
Bull Case
$53.16
(+106%)
Analyst growth 86.1%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$48.33
(+87%)
Market implied 86.1%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$17.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$27.58
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sarah Elizabeth Schubach
SELL
1415 shares
2026-04-15
Andrew Houston
SELL
111166 shares
2026-04-01
Sarah Elizabeth Schubach
SELL
1416 shares
2026-03-31
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DBX price and gamma walls.
