Is DBX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, DBX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of DBX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for DBX to be between $33.90 and $35.33. The current price is $35.56.

What is the analyst price target for DBX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for DBX is $32.60. This implies a potential upside of -8.3% from current levels.

Dropbox (DBX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DBX - Dropbox, Inc. Class A

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$35.56

0.51 (1.46%) ▲

5d: -0.39%

30d: +5.74%

90d: +31.8%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $34.50 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026

Strength: 3.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$38.03

Based on 6.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$23.62

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DBX is currently trading at $35.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.90 to $35.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DBX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $33.90 - $35.33

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($32.60)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.9% growth with 0.9% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $33.90 - $35.33

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $33.50

Resistance Level $36.37

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.70

Wall Street Target $32.60 (-8.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -6.7%

Profit Margin 17.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +7.9% premium

PE vs Historical 10.7 vs 8.5 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +7.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $38.37 (+8%)

2-Year Target $41.40 (+16%)

3-Year Target $44.67 (+26%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→9) PE COMPRESSION $35.47 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%) $85.21 (+140%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 8.3%) $45.22 (+27%)

Bear: (PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.3%) $35.91 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 19.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83

Bull Case $69.99 (+97%)

Analyst growth 81.5%, PE expands to 21.1

Base Case $63.62 (+79%)

Market implied 81.5%, PE stable at 19.2

Bear Case $23.83 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Sarah Elizabeth Schubach SELL 1415 shares 2026-04-15

Andrew Houston SELL 111166 shares 2026-04-01

Sarah Elizabeth Schubach SELL 1416 shares 2026-03-31

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Advanced DBX Option Strategies

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