EDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EDN - Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. (Edenor)
$18.53
-0.28 (-1.49%)
▼
5d:
-10.57%
30d:
-18.33%
90d:
-27.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: EDN is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: EDN is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.54
21.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EDN is currently trading at $18.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.54 to $22.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EDN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.50 (+104.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EDN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.50 (+104.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.54 -
$22.86
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 104.7% below Wall St target ($38.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.54 -
$22.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.12
Resistance Level
$21.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.82
Wall Street Target
$38.50
(+104.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.8%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.60
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.40
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.20
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$18.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 698.5%)
$91.26
(+385%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 698.5%)
$63.48
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 698.5%)
$53.96
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.21
Bull Case
$10.37
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.9
Base Case
$9.43
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.5
Bear Case
$12.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$19.47
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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