Ero Copper (ERO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$30.67
-0.65 (-2.08%)
▼
5d:
+0.76%
30d:
-18.28%
90d:
-14.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
72/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$29.94 – $36.28
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.5x
FAIR
vs 6.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$42.40
+38.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.31 / $32.55
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.05
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.32
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $30.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.94 to $36.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 216.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.31, while resistance sits at $32.55.
Market Sentiment: ERO scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.40 (+38.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.31, while resistance sits at $32.55.
Market Sentiment: ERO scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.40 (+38.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$29.94 -
$36.28
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$29.94 -
$36.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$27.31
Resistance Level
$32.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (85/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.2% below Wall St target ($42.40)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 85/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.45
Wall Street Target
$42.40
(+38.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
96.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
216.8%
Profit Margin
32.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.30
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$29.94
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$29.58
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$30.74
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.8%)
$150.34
(+390%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 16.8%)
$48.81
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 16.8%)
$41.49
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$44.29
(+44%)
Analyst growth 28.6%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$40.27
(+31%)
Market implied 28.6%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$21.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$31.87
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ERO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The copper market is expected to experience a supply deficit as soon as 2028, with mines having a long development timeline and demand for copper continuing to rise. Demand for copper is projected to increase due to electrification and other uses.
Key Retail Themes:
supply deficit
growing demand for copper
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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|
TECK
Teck Resources Ltd Class… |
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SCCO
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