ERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERO - Ero Copper Corp.
$27.90
-2.55 (-8.39%)
▼
5d:
-9.17%
30d:
+4.4%
90d:
+12.66%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
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Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ERO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ERO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.43
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.52
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $27.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.76 to $30.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.15, while resistance sits at $32.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.20 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.15, while resistance sits at $32.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.20 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$26.76 -
$30.60
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($34.20)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.76 -
$30.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.15
Resistance Level
$32.63
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.29
Wall Street Target
$34.20
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
110.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.81
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$29.18
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$28.57
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$30.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.9%)
$195.57
(+542%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 22.9%)
$56.48
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 22.9%)
$48.01
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.80
Bull Case
$56.58
(+86%)
Analyst growth 72.9%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$51.44
(+69%)
Market implied 72.9%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$20.23
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$32.43
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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