What is the fair value of EXEL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for EXEL to be between $55.96 and $58.63. The current price is $58.39.

What is the analyst price target for EXEL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for EXEL is $53.93. This implies a potential upside of -7.6% from current levels.

Exelixis (EXEL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

EXEL - Exelixis Inc

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

$58.39

0.45 (0.78%) ▲

5d: +0.4%

30d: -0.24%

90d: +5.15%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your EXEL Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 30d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $58.36 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 5.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: EXEL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 18.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$91.08

Based on 11.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$56.55

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EXEL is currently trading at $58.39, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.96 to $58.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EXEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.26, while resistance sits at $61.14.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $55.96 - $58.63

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 59.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($53.93)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $55.96 - $58.63

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $56.26

Resistance Level $61.14

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.72

Wall Street Target $53.93 (-7.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.2%

Profit Margin 35.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.9% premium

PE vs Historical 13.7 vs 12.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $60.08 (+3%)

2-Year Target $61.83 (+6%)

3-Year Target $63.62 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→13) PE COMPRESSION $58.41 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.6%) $144.77 (+148%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 18.6%) $97.38 (+67%)

Bear: (PE: 11.7, Growth: 18.6%) $82.77 (+42%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.18

Bull Case $85.28 (+46%)

Analyst growth 33.8%, PE expands to 20.0

Base Case $77.53 (+33%)

Market implied 33.8%, PE stable at 18.2

Bear Case $39.40 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM

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Advanced EXEL Option Strategies

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