FR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FR - First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
$62.93
0.31 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
-5.13%
90d:
+0.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: FR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 16th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.5% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: FR shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 16th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.5% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.24
Based on -10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FR is currently trading at $62.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.96 to $67.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.8) is in line with its historical norms (33.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FR scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.94 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FR scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.94 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.96 -
$67.10
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($71.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.96 -
$67.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.08
(3.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.94
Resistance Level
$64.06
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.78
Wall Street Target
$71.94
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.3%
Profit Margin
47.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
33.8 vs 33.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$63.56
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$63.88
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.8, Growth: -25.8%)
$45.88
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -25.8%)
$27.25
(-57%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -25.8%)
$23.17
(-63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.74
Bull Case
$46.83
(-26%)
Analyst growth -32.0%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$42.57
(-32%)
Market implied -32.0%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$42.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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