FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
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First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$13.44
-0.41 (-2.96%)
▼
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
+19.36%
90d:
+6.25%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (28%)
Quality Score
33/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$10.78 – $12.83
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
52.1x
STRETCHED
vs 45.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.90
+40.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.00 / $14.11
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FWRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $13.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.78 to $12.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 52.1) compared to its historical average (45.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.00, while resistance sits at $14.11.
Market Sentiment: FWRG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.90 (+40.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.00, while resistance sits at $14.11.
Market Sentiment: FWRG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.90 (+40.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.78 -
$12.83
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.78 -
$12.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$11.00
Resistance Level
$14.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($18.90)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.13
Wall Street Target
$18.90
(+40.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.3%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
52.1 vs 45.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.11
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$14.82
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$15.56
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 52.1, Growth: 92.7%)
$45.36
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 92.7%)
$17.28
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 92.7%)
$14.69
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 44.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$12.67
(-6%)
Analyst growth -16.8%, PE expands to 49.2
Base Case
$11.52
(-14%)
Market implied -16.8%, PE stable at 44.7
Bear Case
$9.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FWRG)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user has identified potential trigger levels for various stocks, including $FWRG, which is not specified with a target price.
Key Retail Themes:
StockTwits user's watchlist
Trigger levels for potential stock movements
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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