FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$13.03
0.40 (3.17%)
▲
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
+8.95%
90d:
+14.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FWRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FWRG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $13.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.12 to $12.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 51.3) compared to its historical average (44.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.27 (+47.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.27 (+47.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.12 -
$12.91
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.9% below Wall St target ($19.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.12 -
$12.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.53
Resistance Level
$13.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.26
Wall Street Target
$19.27
(+47.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.4%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
51.3 vs 44.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.66
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$14.31
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$15.00
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.05
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.3, Growth: 52.1%)
$43.98
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 52.1%)
$17.22
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 52.1%)
$14.64
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 43.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.29
Bull Case
$12.04
(-8%)
Analyst growth -12.3%, PE expands to 47.4
Base Case
$10.95
(-16%)
Market implied -12.3%, PE stable at 43.1
Bear Case
$8.49
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
H Melville Hope III
SELL
3878 shares
2026-03-17
Jay Anthony Wolszczak
SELL
3161 shares
2026-03-17
John Daniel Jones
SELL
1697 shares
2026-03-17
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