FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$12.85
-0.49 (-3.67%)
▼
5d:
+6.02%
30d:
-3.67%
90d:
-2.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
1d
Get Alerted When FWRG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FWRG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FWRG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $12.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.96 to $12.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 48.1) is in line with its historical norms (44.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.91, while resistance sits at $13.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.45 (+51.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.91, while resistance sits at $13.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.45 (+51.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.96 -
$12.95
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.4% below Wall St target ($19.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.96 -
$12.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.91
Resistance Level
$13.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.15
Wall Street Target
$19.45
(+51.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2290.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
48.2 vs 44.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.22
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$13.61
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$14.00
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.1, Growth: 56.9%)
$43.37
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 56.9%)
$18.67
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 56.9%)
$15.87
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 47.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$13.99
(+9%)
Analyst growth -4.7%, PE expands to 52.4
Base Case
$12.72
(-1%)
Market implied -4.7%, PE stable at 47.6
Bear Case
$9.07
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
H Melville Hope III
SELL
3878 shares
2026-03-17
Jay Anthony Wolszczak
SELL
3161 shares
2026-03-17
John Daniel Jones
SELL
1697 shares
2026-03-17
Top Rated Restaurants Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WING
Wingstop Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$209 | 45 HOLD |
|
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill I… |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$44 | 50 HOLD |
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 54 HOLD |
|
QSR
Restaurant Brands Intern… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$85 | 48 HOLD |
|
DPZ
Domino's Pizza Inc Commo… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$387 | 48 HOLD |
