FWRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock
$11.38
-0.19 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-4.01%
30d:
+0.31%
90d:
-7.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FWRG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FWRG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FWRG is currently trading at $11.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.63 to $11.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.5) is in line with its historical norms (43.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2290.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.97, while resistance sits at $12.14.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.45 (+68.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FWRG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.97, while resistance sits at $12.14.
Market Sentiment: FWRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.45 (+68.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.63 -
$11.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.3% below Wall St target ($19.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.63 -
$11.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.97
Resistance Level
$12.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.51
Wall Street Target
$19.45
(+68.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2290.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.5 vs 43.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$11.51
(0%)
3-Year Target
$11.49
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→44)
$11.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.5, Growth: 46.8%)
$36.57
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 46.8%)
$18.31
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 46.8%)
$15.56
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 42.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$12.33
(+7%)
Analyst growth -5.1%, PE expands to 46.4
Base Case
$11.21
(-3%)
Market implied -5.1%, PE stable at 42.2
Bear Case
$8.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.5 to 43.7
Stabilization Target:
$11.61
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FWRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
H Melville Hope III
SELL
3878 shares
2026-03-17
Jay Anthony Wolszczak
SELL
3161 shares
2026-03-17
John Daniel Jones
SELL
1697 shares
2026-03-17
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