Global Indemnity Group, LLC (GBLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$22.00
-0.15 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
+1.15%
30d:
-6.18%
90d:
-21.5%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$22.03 – $24.46
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.4x
CHEAP
vs 8.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$49.00
+122.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.27 / $24.58
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GBLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.72
28.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBLI is currently trading at $22.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.03 to $24.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.27, while resistance sits at $24.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+122.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBLI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.27, while resistance sits at $24.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+122.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.03 -
$24.46
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.03 -
$24.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$18.27
Resistance Level
$24.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 122.7% below Wall St target ($49.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.43
Wall Street Target
$49.00
(+122.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.97
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$19.98
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$19.04
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$22.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.9%)
$114.53
(+421%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 24.9%)
$42.86
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 24.9%)
$36.43
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$33.70
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$30.64
(+39%)
Market implied 38.3%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$15.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$25.46
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
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Last updated: November 15, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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