GCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCO - Genesco Inc.
$35.08
0.01 (0.03%)
▲
5d:
+1.27%
30d:
-1.71%
90d:
-5.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.62
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCO is currently trading at $35.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.13 to $38.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.74, while resistance sits at $38.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.33 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.74, while resistance sits at $38.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.33 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.13 -
$38.45
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($40.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.13 -
$38.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.74
Resistance Level
$38.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.15
Wall Street Target
$40.33
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.47
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.93
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$39.45
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 27.4%)
$80.23
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 27.4%)
$72.54
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 27.4%)
$61.66
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$39.24
(+12%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$35.67
(+2%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$23.22
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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