Genesco (GCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCO - Genesco Inc.
$35.12
1.81 (5.43%)
â˛
5d:
+1.97%
30d:
-0.11%
90d:
-17.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GCO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GCO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.85
7.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCO is currently trading at $35.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.38 to $36.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.26, while resistance sits at $36.91. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.67 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.26, while resistance sits at $36.91. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.67 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.38 -
$36.72
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.38 -
$36.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.26
Resistance Level
$36.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.17
Wall Street Target
$39.67
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.45
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.84
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$39.28
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.4%)
$80.63
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 27.4%)
$72.65
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 27.4%)
$61.75
(+76%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.87
Bull Case
$18.32
(-48%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$16.65
(-53%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$22.65
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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