GCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCO - Genesco Inc.
$34.35
-0.07 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
+2.72%
30d:
-19.59%
90d:
+5.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.45
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCO is currently trading at $34.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.13 to $38.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.33 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.33 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$33.13 -
$38.70
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($40.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.13 -
$38.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$41.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.77
Wall Street Target
$40.33
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.86
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.44
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$39.09
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.4%)
$87.06
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 27.4%)
$71.05
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 27.4%)
$60.40
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$39.21
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$35.64
(+4%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$23.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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