Gold Fields Ltd ADR (GFI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$35.62
-0.17 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
-11.79%
30d:
-20.7%
90d:
+2.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.05
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.98
22.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $35.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.11 to $47.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 81.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.67 (+36.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.67 (+36.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.11 -
$47.37
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($48.67)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.11 -
$47.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.80
Resistance Level
$43.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.07
Wall Street Target
$48.67
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.4%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$30.61
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$28.37
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$35.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.3%)
$166.04
(+366%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 17.3%)
$57.54
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 17.3%)
$48.91
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$40.82
(+15%)
Analyst growth 3.7%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$37.11
(+4%)
Market implied 3.7%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$24.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$44.85
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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