Gold Fields Ltd ADR (GFI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$45.10
-0.58 (-1.27%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.35%
30d:
+10.73%
90d:
+25.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GFI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GFI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.24
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.34
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $45.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.21 to $47.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 81.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GFI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GFI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.21 -
$47.65
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($49.46)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.21 -
$47.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.50
Resistance Level
$48.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.71
Wall Street Target
$49.46
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.4%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.69
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.29
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$43.89
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$44.84
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$169.01
(+275%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 17.4%)
$73.00
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 17.4%)
$62.05
(+38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.77
Bull Case
$54.53
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$49.58
(+10%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$31.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$46.07
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 2:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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