Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc
$68.42
0.92 (1.36%)
▲
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
-2.41%
90d:
-6.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GRBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GRBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.12
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $68.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.70 to $72.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GRBK scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GRBK scores 11/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$69.70 -
$72.76
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (11/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($62.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.70 -
$72.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.82
Resistance Level
$74.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.54
Wall Street Target
$62.00
(-9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.08
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$67.74
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$67.40
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$68.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$150.51
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 4.8%)
$78.67
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.8%)
$66.87
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.51
Bull Case
$74.02
(+8%)
Analyst growth -0.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$67.29
(-2%)
Market implied -0.3%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$45.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$69.44
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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