Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc
$64.94
4.26 (7.02%)
▲
5d:
+4.78%
30d:
-3.38%
90d:
-10.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GRBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.67
Based on 0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $64.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.35 to $67.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRBK scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: GRBK scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$62.35 -
$67.90
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -8.7% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 83/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.35 -
$67.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.12
Resistance Level
$65.08
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.83
Wall Street Target
$62.00
(-4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.20
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$65.46
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$65.72
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.4%)
$110.55
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -2.4%)
$60.30
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -2.4%)
$51.25
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.64
Bull Case
$60.26
(-7%)
Analyst growth -9.7%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$54.79
(-16%)
Market implied -9.7%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$41.26
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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