Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$62.62
-1.22 (-1.91%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.85%
30d:
+1.47%
90d:
-11.39%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (71%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$61.40 â $65.24
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.3x
FAIR
vs 10.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$62.00
-1.0% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$60.69 / $68.95
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GRBK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.58
Based on 0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $62.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.40 to $65.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.69, while resistance sits at $68.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.69, while resistance sits at $68.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$61.40 -
$65.24
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$61.40 -
$65.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$60.69
Resistance Level
$68.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -8.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.25
Wall Street Target
$62.00
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.7%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.62
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$64.64
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$65.67
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.9%)
$98.13
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -3.9%)
$55.60
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -3.9%)
$47.26
(-25%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.22
Bull Case
$62.83
(+0%)
Analyst growth -10.5%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$57.12
(-9%)
Market implied -10.5%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$43.41
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GRBK)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor $UserName expressed bearish sentiment towards $GRBK after the company reported EPS of $1.35 versus estimated $1.44, resulting in a miss of 6.2%.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings miss
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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