What is the fair value of GSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for GSM to be between $3.89 and $4.54. The current price is $4.28.

What is the analyst price target for GSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for GSM is $6.00. This implies a potential upside of 40.2% from current levels.

GSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GSM - Ferroglobe PLC Ordinary Shares

Metal Mining

$4.28

-0.18 (-4.04%) ▼

5d: -5.52%

30d: -3.82%

90d: +9.74%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $4.52 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 6.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: GSM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -15.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$13.82

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$8.58

50.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GSM is currently trading at $4.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.89 to $4.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GSM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.03, while resistance sits at $4.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.

Market Sentiment: GSM scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.00 (+40.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $3.89 - $4.54

Company Quality Score 33/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 45.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($6.00)
WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $3.89 - $4.54

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $4.03

Resistance Level $4.75

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.31

Wall Street Target $6.00 (+40.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -2.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -52.4%

Profit Margin -3.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -15.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.3 vs 17.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -15.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $3.85 (-10%)

2-Year Target $3.47 (-19%)

3-Year Target $3.12 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→17) $5.17 (+21%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 277.3%) $28.25 (+560%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 277.3%) $14.45 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 8.8, Growth: 277.3%) $12.28 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 17.1

Stabilization Target: $7.10 (+65.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +65.8%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

De Fuentes Silvia Villar… BUY 26000 shares 2026-03-23

Madrid Javier Lopez BUY 26000 shares 2026-03-23

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Advanced GSM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GSM price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for GSM

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Ferroglobe PLC Ordinary Shares

Metal Mining

About

Ferroglobe PLC provides silicon-based alloys and specialty metals. It produces silicon metal and silicon and manganese-based alloy, serving customers in the specialty chemical, aluminum, solar, steel, and ductile iron foundry industries. The company's business segments include North America- Silicon, North America -Silicon Alloys; Europe Manganese; Europe Silicon Metals; Europe -Silicon Alloys, South Africa Silicon Metals, South Africa-Silicon Alloys, and Other segments The primary raw materials company uses to produce its electrometallurgy products includes its coal and quartz mining operations and its silicon metal and ferroalloy production.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $841,682,678

Employees: 3,283

Listed Since: 2009-07-30

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001639877

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