HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$184.25
2.86 (1.58%)
▲
5d:
+5.32%
30d:
-1.67%
90d:
+1.39%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.99
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $184.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $179.26 to $188.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$179.26 -
$188.58
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($241.67)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$179.26 -
$188.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.09
Resistance Level
$187.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$241.67
(+31.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$182.41
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$181.50
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$184.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -4.8%)
$346.40
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -4.8%)
$158.82
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: -4.8%)
$134.99
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.22
Bull Case
$162.29
(-12%)
Analyst growth -18.7%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$147.54
(-20%)
Market implied -18.7%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$123.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$187.15
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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