HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$189.86
+1.33 (+0.71%)
▲
5d:
-6.26%
30d:
-4.54%
90d:
+1.89%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$189.57 – $202.59
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.3x
FAIR
vs 9.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$250.00
+31.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$184.00 / $208.80
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: HCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$170.77
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $189.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.57 to $202.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.00, while resistance sits at $208.80.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $250.00 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.00, while resistance sits at $208.80.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $250.00 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$189.57 -
$202.59
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$189.57 -
$202.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$184.00
Resistance Level
$208.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($250.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$250.00
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.7%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.15
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$186.46
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$184.78
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$189.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -9.0%)
$306.78
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: -9.0%)
$142.96
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: -9.0%)
$121.51
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.73
Bull Case
$172.04
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.0%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$156.40
(-18%)
Market implied -17.0%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$128.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$194.89
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HCI)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message suggests a potential deal between $HCI and $OXBR in the AI, Data Centers, RWA, and Tokenization sectors. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
potential deal between $HCI and $OXBR
AI, Data Centers, RWA, and Tokenization sectors
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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