HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$206.68
2.26 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
+5.24%
30d:
+17.35%
90d:
+15.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.90
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $206.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $178.94 to $197.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$178.94 -
$197.84
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($241.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$178.94 -
$197.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.26
Resistance Level
$208.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.03
Wall Street Target
$241.67
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$210.40
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$214.19
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$218.04
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$206.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.3%)
$347.27
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: -5.3%)
$175.44
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: -5.3%)
$149.12
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.20
Bull Case
$199.66
(-3%)
Analyst growth -11.2%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$181.51
(-12%)
Market implied -11.2%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$139.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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