HCI Group (HCI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$192.35
5.62 (3.01%)
▲
5d:
+6.04%
30d:
+3.58%
90d:
+5.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
26d
Get Alerted When HCI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HCI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.99
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $192.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $179.06 to $188.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$179.06 -
$188.94
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($241.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (43/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$179.06 -
$188.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.09
Resistance Level
$193.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.76
Wall Street Target
$241.67
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$194.27
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$196.22
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$198.18
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$192.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: -4.8%)
$334.52
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -4.8%)
$165.80
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -4.8%)
$140.93
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.49
Bull Case
$172.26
(-10%)
Analyst growth -16.1%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$156.60
(-19%)
Market implied -16.1%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$126.98
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 8:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
SELL
29 analysts |
$360 | 73 BUY |
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$274 | 67 BUY |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$366 | 61 BUY |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 67 BUY |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$232 | 48 HOLD |
