HCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$182.52
0.49 (0.27%)
â˛
5d:
-0.99%
30d:
+4.33%
90d:
+15.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$362.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$224.95
18.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $182.52, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.00 to $184.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $241.67 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$177.00 -
$184.37
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($241.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$177.00 -
$184.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.41
Resistance Level
$187.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.32
Wall Street Target
$241.67
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.24
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$179.97
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$178.71
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$182.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 85.8%)
$403.24
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 85.8%)
$187.26
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 85.8%)
$159.17
(-13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.06
Bull Case
$170.05
(-7%)
Analyst growth -15.1%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$154.59
(-15%)
Market implied -15.1%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$123.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$186.04
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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