HCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$182.95
0.35 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
+13.47%
90d:
+22.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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1 traders called HCI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$346.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.11
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $182.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.33 to $180.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $159.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.33 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $159.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.33 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$160.33 -
$180.40
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($238.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.33 -
$180.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$147.06
Resistance Level
$159.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$238.33
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.60
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$186.26
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$187.93
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$182.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 66.3%)
$416.04
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 66.3%)
$186.61
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 66.3%)
$158.62
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.83
Bull Case
$164.76
(-10%)
Analyst growth -18.0%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$149.78
(-18%)
Market implied -18.0%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$124.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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