HGTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$12.47
0.24 (1.96%)
▲
5d:
+1.8%
30d:
+15.25%
90d:
+12.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGTY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGTY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.85
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $12.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.73 to $12.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 410.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.73 -
$12.10
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.73 -
$12.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.83
Wall Street Target
$13.00
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.40
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.32
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.25
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$12.51
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.57
Bull Case
$15.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$12.47
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$9.54
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.74
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
4000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth Ahn
SELL
50000 shares
2026-01-26
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