HGTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$11.23
0.39 (3.60%)
▲
5d:
+5.05%
30d:
+2.56%
90d:
+6.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.89
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $11.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.29 to $10.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 410.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.86 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.86 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.29 -
$10.97
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.29 -
$10.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.70
Wall Street Target
$12.86
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 22.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.76
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$9.87
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$11.23
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.24
Bull Case
$24.36
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.8
Base Case
$22.15
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.2
Bear Case
$7.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$12.77
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
4000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth Ahn
SELL
50000 shares
2026-01-26
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