Hagerty (HGTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$13.55
0.06 (0.44%)
â˛
5d:
+0.67%
30d:
+6.27%
90d:
+24.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HGTY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HGTY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.77
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $13.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.61 to $13.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.61 -
$13.58
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.61 -
$13.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.01
Resistance Level
$13.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.06
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 22.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.73
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.90
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$14.09
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â22)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 2160.0%)
$45.73
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 2160.0%)
$40.00
(+195%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 2160.0%)
$34.00
(+151%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.58
Bull Case
$16.36
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$13.55
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$10.37
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
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