Hagerty (HGTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$13.61
0.15 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
+0.15%
30d:
+2.87%
90d:
+11.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGTY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HGTY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.78
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $13.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.32 to $13.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.18, while resistance sits at $14.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.18, while resistance sits at $14.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.32 -
$13.76
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.32 -
$13.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.18
Resistance Level
$14.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.25
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.81
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.02
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$14.23
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.65
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 2151.5%)
$45.93
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 2151.5%)
$40.30
(+196%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 2151.5%)
$34.26
(+152%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 24.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.57
Bull Case
$16.43
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$13.61
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$10.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
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