Hagerty (HGTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$15.55
-0.24 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+14.51%
90d:
+31.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HGTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HGTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.86
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $15.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.50 to $15.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.0) compared to its historical average (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.50 -
$15.04
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.3% growth expectation is conservative given 410% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.50 -
$15.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.00
Resistance Level
$15.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.97
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(-8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.3% premium
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 22.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.78
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$17.84
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$18.97
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 2092.5%)
$53.29
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 2092.5%)
$39.24
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 2092.5%)
$33.35
(+111%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 24.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.66
Bull Case
$19.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$15.79
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$12.08
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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