HGTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$13.08
0.27 (2.11%)
▲
5d:
+0.85%
30d:
+13.25%
90d:
+19.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HGTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HGTY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.68
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $13.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.65 to $13.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.64, while resistance sits at $13.57.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.64, while resistance sits at $13.57.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.65 -
$13.05
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.65 -
$13.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.64
Resistance Level
$13.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.29
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.11
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$13.13
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$13.16
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 2156.5%)
$44.14
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 2156.5%)
$39.74
(+204%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 2156.5%)
$33.78
(+158%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 21.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.60
Bull Case
$15.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$13.08
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$10.01
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
4000 shares
2026-03-12
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