Hagerty (HGTY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.80
-0.24 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
-13.94%
30d:
+6.11%
90d:
+21.82%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (49%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$14.44 – $16.93
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
26.6x
STRETCHED
vs 22.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$16.88
+6.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.38 / $19.41
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HGTY is down 13.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.38
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $15.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.44 to $16.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.6) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGTY scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.44 -
$16.93
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$14.44 -
$16.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$15.38
Resistance Level
$19.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with -9.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.59
Wall Street Target
$16.88
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.4%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 22.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.64
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$17.52
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$18.45
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.6, Growth: 357.1%)
$53.32
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 357.1%)
$39.83
(+152%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 357.1%)
$33.85
(+114%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 27.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.58
Bull Case
$19.08
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 28.7
Base Case
$15.80
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$12.09
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HGTY)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Broad Arrow Auctions, a Hagerty subsidiary, reported record-breaking sales of $92.8 million at their 2026 Las Vegas Auction, topped by a $18.7 million Ferrari F50 and $18.54 million Ferrari Daytona SP3.
Key Retail Themes:
record-breaking auction sales for Broad Arrow Auctions
Ferrari models dominating the top sales
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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