Horace Mann Educators (HMN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$45.56
-0.34 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
+0.66%
30d:
-8.02%
90d:
-13.29%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.24
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $45.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.24 to $49.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $44.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HMN scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+24.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $44.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HMN scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+24.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$45.24 -
$49.58
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.0% below Wall St target ($56.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.24 -
$49.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.28
Resistance Level
$46.07
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.47
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+24.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.19
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$42.87
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$41.58
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$45.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.7%)
$144.94
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 10.7%)
$61.80
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$52.53
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.28
Bull Case
$63.47
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.7%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$57.70
(+27%)
Market implied 25.7%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$31.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$50.03
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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