HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$50.60
0.19 (0.38%)
▲
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-1.38%
90d:
+6.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.94
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $50.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.14 to $52.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $49.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.14 -
$52.63
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.14 -
$52.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.94
Resistance Level
$53.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.75
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$50.90
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$51.06
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.52
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.7%)
$150.52
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 11.7%)
$70.49
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 11.7%)
$59.92
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.28
Bull Case
$69.74
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$63.40
(+25%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$34.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
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