Horace Mann Educators (HMN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$46.37
-1.00 (-2.11%)
▼
5d:
+0.09%
30d:
+1.07%
90d:
-10.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.78
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $46.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.06 to $47.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$45.06 -
$47.88
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.50)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.06 -
$47.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.03
Resistance Level
$47.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.83
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.66
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$45.96
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$45.27
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$47.16
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$143.15
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$63.66
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$54.11
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.28
Bull Case
$63.89
(+35%)
Analyst growth 25.3%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$58.08
(+23%)
Market implied 25.3%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$31.52
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$49.34
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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