HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$51.81
-0.30 (-0.58%)
▼
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
-3.79%
90d:
+12.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.45
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $51.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.40 to $53.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$51.40 -
$53.06
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.40 -
$53.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.35
Resistance Level
$53.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.89
Wall Street Target
$50.50
(-2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.95
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$54.11
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$55.31
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$167.70
(+224%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$80.04
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$68.03
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$75.66
(+45%)
Analyst growth 32.2%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$68.78
(+32%)
Market implied 32.2%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$35.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
Victor Fetter
BUY
3500 shares
2026-02-25
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