HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$50.75
1.72 (3.51%)
▲
5d:
+5.07%
30d:
+6.51%
90d:
+20.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.41
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $50.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.94 to $48.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.94 -
$48.72
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($52.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.94 -
$48.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.94
Resistance Level
$47.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.42
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$54.15
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$55.94
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.89
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$154.53
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$70.97
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 11.8%)
$60.33
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.98
Bull Case
$68.75
(+36%)
Analyst growth 27.5%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$62.50
(+23%)
Market implied 27.5%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$33.34
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 3:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
Victor Fetter
BUY
3500 shares
2026-02-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-05
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