HMN
Horace Mann Educators Corporation
FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
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Horace Mann Educators (HMN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$52.78
-0.59 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-0.73%
30d:
+15.37%
90d:
+0.59%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (19%)
Quality Score
26/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$44.90 – $50.73
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.8x
FAIR
vs 9.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$56.50
+7.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$43.56 / $54.24
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.46
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $52.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.90 to $50.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.90 -
$50.73
Company Quality Score
26/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$44.90 -
$50.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$43.56
Resistance Level
$54.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.50)
- BEARISH: Market expects 2.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 26/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.84
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.89
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$55.02
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$56.18
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.52
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.6%)
$118.45
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 3.6%)
$58.70
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$49.89
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.27
Bull Case
$73.74
(+40%)
Analyst growth 25.6%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$67.03
(+27%)
Market implied 25.6%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$36.29
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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