HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$52.54
0.01 (0.02%)
▲
5d:
-2.92%
30d:
+8.33%
90d:
+18.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.93
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $52.54, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.27 to $52.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$48.27 -
$52.83
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($52.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.27 -
$52.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.94
Resistance Level
$47.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.75
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$57.05
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$59.44
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$153.87
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$73.40
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$62.39
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.98
Bull Case
$73.41
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$66.74
(+27%)
Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$35.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
Victor Fetter
BUY
3500 shares
2026-02-25
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