Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$29.11
1.77 (6.47%)
▲
5d:
+5.51%
30d:
+12.05%
90d:
+14.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.45
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $29.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.37 to $27.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.37 -
$27.54
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.90)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.1% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.37 -
$27.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.48
Resistance Level
$29.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.79
Wall Street Target
$27.90
(-4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 12.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.59
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$32.15
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$33.79
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 193.6%)
$131.89
(+353%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 193.6%)
$98.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 193.6%)
$83.51
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$32.51
(+12%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$29.56
(+2%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$18.59
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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