HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$25.31
0.77 (3.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+1.4%
90d:
+3.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HOG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HOG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.35
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $25.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.48 to $26.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.19, while resistance sits at $28.77. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.36 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.19, while resistance sits at $28.77. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.36 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.48 -
$26.63
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.48 -
$26.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.19
Resistance Level
$28.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.54
Wall Street Target
$27.36
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.8%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.61
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$24.69
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$24.76
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 195.3%)
$136.97
(+458%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 195.3%)
$82.82
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 195.3%)
$70.40
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.79
Bull Case
$29.64
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.4%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$26.95
(+10%)
Market implied 9.4%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$16.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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