Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$26.90
0.15 (0.56%)
â˛
5d:
+9.57%
30d:
-0.22%
90d:
+5.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HOG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HOG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.22
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $26.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.40 to $27.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.40 -
$27.56
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.90)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.40 -
$27.56
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.00
Resistance Level
$27.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.67
Wall Street Target
$27.90
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.57
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$28.26
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$28.97
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â13)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 193.6%)
$131.89
(+390%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 193.6%)
$90.79
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 193.6%)
$77.17
(+187%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$31.81
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$28.92
(+8%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$18.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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