Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$27.87
0.91 (3.38%)
▲
5d:
+0.72%
30d:
+7.32%
90d:
+8.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.15
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $27.87, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.37 to $28.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.22, while resistance sits at $28.86. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.22, while resistance sits at $28.86. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$26.37 -
$28.02
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.9% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.37 -
$28.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.22
Resistance Level
$28.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.20
Wall Street Target
$28.18
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$30.09
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$31.26
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.97
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 199.9%)
$133.65
(+380%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 199.9%)
$94.06
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 199.9%)
$79.95
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$31.99
(+15%)
Analyst growth 7.9%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$29.08
(+4%)
Market implied 7.9%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$18.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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