HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
MOTORCYCLES, BICYCLES & PARTS
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$33.96
-0.26 (-0.76%)
▼
5d:
-1.82%
30d:
+23.63%
90d:
+21.94%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$26.72 – $32.37
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.3x
STRETCHED
vs 12.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$30.65
-9.7% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$29.13 / $34.84
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $33.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.72 to $32.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$26.72 -
$32.37
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$26.72 -
$32.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$29.13
Resistance Level
$34.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($30.65)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.1% growth with -19.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.33
Wall Street Target
$30.65
(-9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.1%
Profit Margin
-3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 12.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.71
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$39.68
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$42.90
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 170.2%)
$139.43
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 170.2%)
$114.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 170.2%)
$90.57
(+167%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HOG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Harley-Davidson reported a 5% year-over-year increase in global retail motorcycle sales for Q3 2026, driven by improved North American demand and inventory management. The company aims to double North American dealer profitability in 2026.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong North American retail sales growth
Effective inventory management and dealer profitability strategy
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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