HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$28.20
0.57 (2.06%)
▲
5d:
+1.51%
30d:
+6.33%
90d:
+21.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.50
4.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $28.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.26 to $27.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.26 -
$27.52
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.26 -
$27.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.59
Resistance Level
$28.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$27.64
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 12.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.58
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$31.03
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$32.55
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 188.6%)
$132.21
(+369%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 188.6%)
$95.17
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 188.6%)
$80.90
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$32.96
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$29.96
(+6%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$18.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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