HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$25.58
0.89 (3.60%)
▲
5d:
-1.88%
30d:
+10.26%
90d:
+43.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HOG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.23
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $25.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.82 to $25.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.82 -
$25.46
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with -11.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.82 -
$25.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.44
Resistance Level
$25.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.86
Wall Street Target
$25.64
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.4%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.68
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$27.83
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$29.02
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.55
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 385.9%)
$135.70
(+431%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 385.9%)
$86.33
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 385.9%)
$73.38
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$25.98
(+2%)
Analyst growth -4.3%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$23.62
(-8%)
Market implied -4.3%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$16.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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